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  Multi Lingual Internet Mail Magazine

  jp-Swiss-journal  Vol. 182 November 21, 2018 (Swiss Time)

   http://www.swissjapanwatcher.ch/
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目次 / INDEX / INHALTSVERZEICHNIS

 

 J

20181125日国民投票

   1.「角付牛の為の発議」

   2.「国内法優先発議」

   3. 「被保険者を監視する法的根拠改正法」

 

                          明子 ヒューリマン

 

 

 

E

The Popular Vote on November 25, 2018

   1. "Horned Cow Initiative"

   2. "Self-determination Initiative"

   3. "Statutory basis for monitoring claimants"

 

                  Akiko Huerlimann

 

 

□━━━━━━━━━━━━━【 日本語 】━━━━━━━━━━━━━

 

     20181125日国民投票

     1.「角付牛の為の発議」

     2.「国内法優先発議」

     3. 「被保険者を監視する法的根拠改正法」

 

                      明子 ヒューリマン

 

 

1.「角付牛の為の発議」*1)

 

除角しない牛や山羊を飼育する農家への補助金を求める議案だ。牛に角が有ると広い飼育場や家畜小屋が必要になるので費用も嵩む為、補助金の適用を連邦憲法に明記するよう求めている。「角を矯めて牛を殺す」という諺が有るように、牛が角を切除されると生死に関わる程の負担になるようだ。牛の角には神経も血管も通っている。この議案が承認されたとしても子牛の除角は今後も認められる。補助金が実現すれば、除角をしない農家が増える可能性はある。

 

タメディア社の世論調査をターゲス・アンツァイガー紙が20181114日報じた。投票傾向は「賛成」が1回目の36%から3回目の39%まで微増しているものの、「反対」が1回目の29%から、3回目は46%と急増した。連邦議会最強のロビー団体は農業団体だと報じられることが多い。しかし農家の経営は決して楽ではなく、労働も過酷なのはよく知られている事だ。食糧自給は国民の死活問題であるし、農林業で国土保全が担保される。農家への補助金は金融機関に対する補助金とは一線を画するものの筈だが、賛否の陣営はバラバラのようだ。「賛成」はSP、緑の党、GLPEVPBio Suisse。「反対」は連邦政府・議会、SVPFDPCVPBDPEDU、農婦と農村女性組合、スイス獣医学会。農業団体が「自由投票」なのは、利害関係の複雑さが伺える。

 

2.「国内法優先発議」*2)

 

SVPの発議は「スイスの連邦憲法は国際法に優先し、国際法の義務規定には従う(ドイツ語原文:Die Bundesverfassung steht ueber dem Voelkerrecht und geht ihm vor, unter Vorbehalt der zwingenden Bestimmungen des Voelkerrechts. )」という文言を憲法に明文化するよう主張している。国際法の義務規定は、奴隷制、侵略戦争、大量虐殺および拷問を禁じる事と発議者は認識している。「賛成」は発議したSVPEDU。「反対」は連邦政府・議会、SPFDPCVP、緑の党、GLPBDPEVP、市町村連合、経済団体エコノミースイス、事業者団体、スイス労働組合。

 

発議者は、この議案を直接民主制を維持する為の基本と捉えている。EU諸国も自国の自己決定権を最優先に据えている。この事実を反対派は殆ど語ろうとしない。専門家もジャーナリストもこの事実を認めながらも、結論は言葉を濁す。はてさて、「国民発議」を支持している筈のスイスの有権者が、この議案に多数が反対する事態になっているのは一体どうしたことか?主権国家として自己決定権を主張することが、まるで国際法違反だと言わんばかりの論調が目立つ。

 

そもそもSVPがこの議案を発議したのは、2014年の「大量移民の阻止」が有権者に支持されたにもかかわらず、連邦政府がEUとの移動の自由の阻害要因になる事を憚って法制化を適切に実施していないからだ。大量移民の流入に悩むEU諸国はドイツを始め移民規制を始めている。移民問題の解決策はスイス政府が推進してきたように、移民出身者の母国の問題を支援する事が基本であるべきと考える。ドイツ政府が移民歓迎の方針転換した現在も尚、EUとの貿易摩擦を懸念する経済界が反対キャンペーンに巨額の資金を投入していると言われており、大手メディアの論調も反対一色だ。SPは人権問題を懸念して反対していると言われているが、SP党首クリスティアン・ルヴラはとかく見解を明瞭に語らない、とメディアに揶揄されている始末だ。

 

EUの現状はドイツの意向を忖度する巨大なEU官僚機構が差配しており、民主的に運営されているとはお世辞にも言えない。スイスには事ある毎に政治的・経済的な圧力をかける。そうした脅しにスイスの有権者までもが屈するような傾向は、スイスの国家主権と直接民主制が揺らぎ始めている証のようで懸念される。投票傾向は、「賛成」が1回目の41%から3回目の37%と減少傾向にある。「反対」は1回目が50%から、3回目は56%と着実に増えた。この事に危機感を覚えたSVP青年部のキャンペーン活動を、ジュネーヴのオンライン紙「The Local」が英語版で報じている。*3) SVPの発議は支持が減る一方で承認される見通しが無い事のみを強調する報道ばかりが目立つ。SRFの連邦議会の記者は、SVPと共闘する党が無く孤立したことが、支持が広がらない原因と解説した。

 

3. 「被保険者を監視する法的根拠改正法」*4)

 

201610月「欧州人権裁判所」が、スイス傷害保険公社「SUVA」による被保険者に対する監視の法的根拠が不十分という判断を下した。この為スイス連邦裁判所も20177月同様の判断をし、現在監視は行われていない。不正受給者の監視を合法化する為の法制化が今回の議案だ。障害者年金と事故保険の被保険者の監視は既に行われていたが、実際に監視されたのは稀なケースだった。障害保険公社は、2009年から2016年までの年平均2,000人の不正受給被疑者の内、220人を監視、その約半数で不正受給が確認されている。スイス傷害保険公社 「SUVA *5) も同時期年間400人の不正受給被疑者の内数十人を監視、その内の3分の2の不正受給を確認出来たという。障害者年金を受給しながら、仕事をして収入を得ていたというような事例と伝えられている。今回議論が監視方法の妥当性に集中しているのは、やや本筋から離れているように思える。

 

「賛成」は連邦政府・議会、SVPFDPCVPBDPEDU、事業者団体、雇用者連盟、保険者連盟。「反対」はSP、緑の党、GLP、労働団体「Travailsuisse」、身障者組織「Pro Infirmis」、身障者団体統轄組織。タメディア社の世論調査をターゲス・アンツァイガー紙が20181114日報じた。投票傾向は、「賛成」が1回目の54%から3回目の62%まで過半数を維持している。「反対」は1回目の22%から、3回目も29%と微増に留まっている。

 

今回の議案はいずれも激しい論争を惹き起こしているだけに、宣伝合戦も報道も過熱気味だ。世論調査を依頼した「SRF」の情報は1回目と2回目のみで、調査を実施した「gfs.bern」 の情報も3回目は公表していない。20181114日付ターゲスアンツァイガー紙の3回目と称する世論調査 *6) LeeWas GmbH の研究者が118日と9日オンラインで行い13298人が回答したそうだが、gfs.bernとは別だ。数回にわたる世論調査の比較は、同一手法であるべきだと思うが、そうでないなら印象操作の余地があると疑える。世論調査の結果のみを喧伝する過剰報道が横行しているように見えるが、報道機関は抑制的であるべきと思う。有権者各自が冷静に考える余地を阻害する。極僅かの人数の意見等殆ど参考にならない筈だが、最近の投票結果は世論調査に準じる傾向がある。有権者が世論調査の結果に大きく左右されているのではないかと懸念される。

 

 

【 参照 】

 

*1) 「角付牛の為の発議」:

https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20181125/horned-cow-initiative.html

*2) 「自己決定発議」

https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20181125/self-determination-initiative.html

*3) Voters set to shun 'Swiss law first' initiative: poll

https://www.thelocal.ch/20181114/voters-set-to-shun-swiss-law-first-initiative-poll

*4) 「被保険者を監視する法的根拠改正法」:

https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20181125/supervising-insurance-providers.html

*5) SUVA: https://www.suva.ch/en/the-suva/about-us/suvas-history

*6) 世論調査:

https://www.gfsbern.ch/de-ch/Detail/vorabstimmungsanalyse-zur-eidg-abstimmung-vom-25-november-2018

https://www.gfsbern.ch/de-ch/Detail/vorabstimmungsanalyse-zur-eidg-abstimmung-vom-25-november-2018-15

https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/abstimmungen/abstimmungen/umfrage-zu-den-abstimmungen-ergebnisse-auf-einen-blick-volk-folgt-bundesrat-und-parlament

https://www.tamedia.ch/tl_files/content/Group/PDF%20Files/Deutsch/20181114_MM_Tamedia_Abstimmungsumfrage_3.Welle_DE.pdf

https://leewas.ch/

https://www.nzz.ch/schweiz/trendumfrage-zwei-mal-ja-ein-mal-nein-ld.1429354

 

 

【 編集後記 】

 

世論調査を調べていて疑問に感じたので内容を急遽変更した結果、又もや時間切れ直前の発行になってしまった。政治問題で妥当な情報量を1人で収集するのは困難で、家庭内や友人との情報交換は欠かせない。家族の話題が種切れになる事も無く、お勧めだ。

 

 

━━━━━━━━━━━━━【 English 】━━━━━━━━━━━━━

 

 

     The Popular Vote on November 25, 2018

     1. "Horned Cow Initiative"

     2. "Self-determination Initiative"

     3. "Statutory basis for monitoring claimants"

 

                     Akiko Huerlimann

 

 

1. "Horned Cow Initiative" *1)

 

The bill is about calling in subsidies to farmers breeding or keeping cattle and goats with horns. If the cows have horns, there is a need for a larger breeding facility or a cow barn; in this case, expenses also increase, therefore, the initiators ask with their Initiative that the financial support for such farmers is written in the Federal Constitution (Agricultural Paragraph). There is a Japanese proverb "Correct horns and kill cows", dehorning seems that a cow is burdened by a life-or-death matter. Both, nerves and blood vessels pass through the horn of cattle. Even if this bill is approved, the dehorning of young cattle will be still allowed in the future. If subsidies are granted, possibly more farmers will keep cattle with horns.

 

The newspaper "Tages-Anzeiger" reported "Tamedia's" opinion poll on November 14, 2018. The voting intention tendency of the "Yes" has slightly increased from 36% to 39% for the first time in the third survey, whereas the "No" has rapidly increased from 29% in the first survey to 46% in the third one. It was often reported that the strongest lobbying group at the Parliament is the agricultural group. The life of farmers is however by no means easy, it is well known that their work is very hard. Self-sufficiency of food is crucial to the survival of the Swiss nation, and land conservation is guaranteed by agriculture and forestry. The subsidies for farmers should be different from subsidies to financial institutions, but the "Yes" and "No" camps seem to be disjointed. The "Yes" camp is SP, Green, GLP, EVP, Bio Suisse. The "No" camp is the Federal Government and Parliaments, SVP, FDP, CVP, BDP, EDU, Female Farmers and Rural Women Union, as well as the Swiss Veterinarians Society. The Agricultural Organization declared a free vote that does imply the complexity of interests.

 

2. "Self-determination Initiative" *2)

 

The Initiative of the SVP is that the Swiss constitution should be modified as follows: "The Swiss Federal Constitution is above the International Law and overrides it, subject to the mandatory rules of the International Law". (Original Wording in German: "Die Bundesverfassung steht ueber dem Voelkerrecht und geht ihm vor, unter Vorbehalt der zwingenden Bestimmungen des Voelkerrechts".) The proponents recognize the compulsory rules of the International Law such as the "prohibition of Torture and Slavery", or Invasion, Warfare and Genocide. Supported is the initiative with a "Yes" by the SVP as initiator and the party EDU. Part of the "No" camp are the Federal Government and the parliaments, the parties SP, FDP, CVP, The Green, GLP, BDP and EVP, Cities Association, Economiesuisse, Trade Association as well as the Swiss Labor Union "Travail.Suisse".

 

The proponents consider the bill as the basis for maintaining Direct Democracy. The EU countries also set their rights of self- determination as top priority. Opponents hardly talk about this fact. Experts and journalists both admit this fact, but the conclusion turns the word turbid. Well well, Swiss constituency who supposed to be the supporter of "Popular Vote", now turns against the Initiative, what's happened to them? A conspicuous tone is noticeable that claiming self-determination rights as a sovereign state might be like a violation of international law.

 

Originally, the SVP initiated this Initiative, in spite of the fact that voters endorsed "the Prevention of Mass Immigration" in 2014; the Federal Government and Parliament have not yet implemented the legislation properly because it is an impediment to the freedom of movement agreement with the EU. EU countries such as Germany suffering from the influx of a massive number of immigrants, began to regulate immigration. As a solution to the immigration problem, the Swiss Government promotes the position that it is fundamental to solve the problems and support the home countries of the immigrants. Although even the German Government has changed its policy of welcoming immigrants, the Swiss economic community is concerned about trade frictions with the EU. It is said that they have invested a number of million Swiss Francs into the opposition campaign against the SVP-Initiative. The tone and editorials of major media are also uniformly against the Initiative. The SP is opposed to it based on concerns about human rights issues, but the SP-party leader Mr. Christian Levrat is criticized by the media that he does not explain clearly about his opinion.

 

The current situation of the EU (European Union) is dominated by a huge EU bureaucracy that mostly considers German intentions, it cannot be said that the EU is democratically operated at all. It exerts political and economical pressure on Switzerland at every occasion. The tendency of Swiss voters to be succumbed to such EU-threats, makes me concerned whether Switzerland's state sovereignty and direct democracy has started to be shaken. The voting intention tendency of the "Yes" has decreased from approx. 41 in the first survey to 37% in the third survey. The "No" side has steadily increased from 50% in the first survey to 56% in the third survey. The English Online News Network, "The Local", reporting from Geneva, informed about the campaign activity of SVP youth who felt a sense of crisis. From media reports, emphasizing the initiative of the SVP, it is noticeable that the initiative is diminishing in support and there seems no prospect of being approved at all. A SRF journalist who is in charge of Federal Parliament affairs explained the reason why the support does not spread; there is no party fighting with the SVP, which is isolated regarding to that topic.

 

3. "Statutory basis for monitoring claimants" *4)

 

In October 2016, the "European Court of Human Rights" judged that the legal basis for monitoring claimants by the SUVA (Swiss National Accident Insurance Fund) was insufficient. In July 2017, the Swiss Federal Court (Supreme Court) made a similar verdict regarding to the monitoring by the Swiss Disability Insurance (IV); therefore no monitoring of claimants is currently under way. The modified bill, is a social legislation to legalize the monitoring of non-eligible (illegal) recipients. The monitoring of insured persons with disability- or accident insurance pensions has already been done, but actually the monitored cases were rare. Among the annual average fraudulent suspects from 2009 to 2016, 220 suspect recipients were monitored by "IV", and in about half of the cases, the suspected fraud was confirmed. The Swiss National Accident Insurance Fund "SUVA" also monitored annually a dozen of persons out of 400 suspected unjustifiable recipients in the same period; in two third of the cases, the insurance fraud was confirmed. There were cases reported, where recipients obtained a disability pension and at the same time earning an normal income by work. The discussion of this time focuses on the validity of the monitoring methods, but somewhat seems to be away from the main point.

 

In the "Yes" camp is the Federal Government and the Parliament, the parties SVP, FDP, CVP, BDP, EDU, Trade Association, Employer's Association and the Insurance Association. In the "No" camp are the SP, The Green, GLP, the Swiss Labor Union "Travail.Suisse", the Pro Infirmis, and the Umbrella Organization of the Disability Organizations. The Tages-Anzeiger reported "Tamedia's" opinion poll on November 14, 2018. In the voting intention tendency, the "Yes" maintained a majority of 54% in the first survey increasing up to 62% in the third survey. The "No" trend is only on a slight increase from 22% in the first survey to 29% in the third survey.

 

All the bills of this time are causing intense controversy, therefore, the advertising campaign and the reports are overheated. Information on the SRF-website, which ordered opinion polls, showed only the first and second survey. Information on "gfs.bern" who conducted the survey has not yet announced the third survey too. The third opinion survey was reported by Tages-Anzeiger on November 14, 2018 that was conducted by researchers of "LeeWas GmbH"; the survey asked 13,298 people online nation-wide on November 8 and 9, but not by "gfs.bern". The opinion polls for all surveys should be based on the same methods to be comparable, but if not, it can be suspected that there is room for a conspiracy. I could see the excessive news, which publicized mainly the results of public opinion surveys seeming to be rampant, but media should be restrained. Otherwise, they disturb voters to think calmly. Opinion of just very few people will not be helpful, but recent voting results tended to follow public opinion surveys. I am concerned that voters are largely influenced by the results of public opinion polls.

 

 

[Reference]

 

*1) Horned Cow Initiative:

https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20181125/horned-cow-initiative.html

*2) Self-determination Initiative:

https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20181125/self-determination-initiative.html

*3) Voters set to shun 'Swiss law first' initiative: poll

https://www.thelocal.ch/20181114/voters-set-to-shun-swiss-law-first-initiative-poll

*4) "Statutory basis for monitoring claimants":

https://www.admin.ch/gov/en/start/documentation/votes/20181125/supervising-insurance-providers.html

*5) SUVA: https://www.suva.ch/en/the-suva/about-us/suvas-history

*6) Opinion Surveys:

https://www.gfsbern.ch/de-ch/Detail/vorabstimmungsanalyse-zur-eidg-abstimmung-vom-25-november-2018

https://www.gfsbern.ch/de-ch/Detail/vorabstimmungsanalyse-zur-eidg-abstimmung-vom-25-november-2018-15

https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/abstimmungen/abstimmungen/umfrage-zu-den-abstimmungen-ergebnisse-auf-einen-blick-volk-folgt-bundesrat-und-parlament

https://www.tamedia.ch/tl_files/content/Group/PDF%20Files/Deutsch/20181114_MM_Tamedia_Abstimmungsumfrage_3.Welle_DE.pdf

https://leewas.ch/

https://www.nzz.ch/schweiz/trendumfrage-zwei-mal-ja-ein-mal-nein-ld.1429354

 

 

[Editor's comment]

 

When I was studying public opinion polls, I felt doubtful. I quickly changed the content, that's why I am issuing the magazine just before the time runs out. It is difficult to collect reasonable information about political issues alone, the exchange of information is indispensable within family and friends. I would recommend this, so that conversation among family never runs out of topics.

 

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