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2011年連邦議会議員選挙結果概況
明子 ヒューリマン
連邦議会議員 *1) の選挙結果 *2) は正に事前報道の予想通りとなり、報道機関は胸を張った。2008年11月に結党した国民民主党 *3) と2007年に国民議会に初めて代表を送り出したグリーン・リヴェラル *4) の新興勢力が伝統政党の票を奪って大きく議席を増やしたのだ。やはり原発問題が勝敗の行方を左右したと報じられたが、国民感情としては納得出来る。
10月24日23：35時点の「国民議会（下院）」200議席の改選議席は、左派から右派の順に緑の党（Green）が5議席減らして15議席、社会民主党（SP）が2議席増やして45議席、グリーン・リヴェラルが9議席増やして12議席、キリスト教民主党（CVP）が3議席減らして28議席、自由民主党（FDP） *5)が5議席減らして30議席、国民民主党（BDP）が9議席増やして9議席、スイス国民党（SVP） *6) が8議席減らして54議席、その他が1議席増えて7議席で、投票率は49.8%とまずまず。
SVPの勢いにも陰りが見え、特にクリストフ・ブロッハー氏はSVPの中で最高得票を得られなかったことから、影響力の低下が指摘された。FDPは14.7%と歴史的な低得票数となった。特にフルヴィオ・ペッリ党首の再選が幾度も危ぶまれ、深夜になってかろうじて当選が確定したという経過も注目を集めた。CVP *7) も伸び悩み、緑の党 *8) も全州議会に代表を送れるほどの支持は得られなかった。SP *9) は2議席増やしたものの、得票率は1.9%減ったので楽観は出来ない結果だった！政党の勢力図はやや右側に傾いたようだが、全体としては依然左派政党が右派政党を幾分上回る力を維持した。
一方狭き門の「全州議会議員（上院）」の選挙結果は、10月24日の発表当日に当選したのは46議席のうちの27議席のみ。未だ当選者が確定していないカントンが13もあって、19名の2回目の投票が11月6日のカントン・ヴァリスを皮切りに12月4日のカントン・ゾロトゥーンまで各カントンで五月雨式に行われる。1回目で当選したスターは、カントン・アールガウSPのパスカーレ・ブルーダラー議員 *10)。 30代の若さで国民議会議長を難なく務めた才色兼備のスポーツウーマンで妊娠中に選挙戦を戦った。もう1人はザンクトガレンFDPのカントン財務担当責任者のカリン・ケラー＝スッター女史 *11) で、こちらも才色兼備。現党首フラヴィオ・ペッリ議員の理想的な後継者と取り沙汰されている。
国民議会議員と全州議会議員には二股かけて立候補出来る事から、国民議会議員の当選が確定するのも長丁場になる。二股かける議員は政党にとって選挙戦略上不利になるので、余程の実力者で無ければ許される事では無い。ところが、11月20日のベルンの2回目の全州議会議員選挙は驚きの結果となった。有力候補だったSVPのアドゥリアン・アムストゥッツ全州議会議員がまさかの落選で、国民議会議員に収まる事になった。SVPの政策キャンペーンに過激な印象を持つ国民が76％もいたというターゲス・アンツァイガー紙のオンライン調査結果があった。予想外の貴重な議席を射止めたのは元ビール/ビエンヌ市長でSPのハンス・シュトェックリ国民議会議員だった。SVPから再びSPの議席を奪い返したのだ。もう1人はBDPのヴェルナー・ルーギンビュール全州議会議員で議席を維持した。
BDPのエヴェリン・ヴィドゥマー＝シュルムプフ連邦評議員の再選の行方が何かと注目されるのは、4年前の選挙で保守のブロッハー元連邦評議員の再選阻止で結束した中道と革新連合に推されて連邦評議員に当選したという因縁からだ。今回この連合体が再び同じ共同戦線を張れるのか、様々な駆け引きが取り沙汰された。選挙結果は、ヴィドゥマー＝シュルムプフ連邦評議員の母党BDPが大いに躍進した。彼女の為にSVPを追い出された支持者達で結党されたのだが、それはヴィドゥマー＝シュルムプフ連邦評議員の政治的手腕が高く評価されての躍進でもあったと思う。勤勉で地道な実務型で、当初の法務であれ、現在の財務であれ、山積する問題を着実に片付け、他国との交渉でも手堅い交渉をしてきた実力に対する国民の評価は高い。常に好奇な視線にさらされ、センセーショナルな報道にも動じずにポーカーフェイスで職務を全うしてきた姿勢には敬服する。彼女を担ぎ出した諸政党の選挙結果が思わしくなく、SPのレブラ党首はBDPのグルンダー党首にヴィドゥマー＝シュルンムプフ連邦評議員の再選に協力する見返りに連携を持ちかけたのだが、グルンダー党首はそもそも保守系の政治家なので、左派との連携はあり得ないと断った。
そして今年の連邦議会議員選挙の山場とも言える11月27日には、7人の全州議会議員の2回目の選挙が行われた。1回目の選挙で獲得票が過半数に達しなかったツューリッヒ、ルツェルン、ウーリ、シュヴィーツ、ザンクトガレン、アールガウの全州議会議員8議席の2回目の選挙結果が判明して、12月4日に予定されているカントン・ゾロトゥーンの1議席を残して、全州議会議員の新たな陣容が決まった。最も注目されたのは、保守のスイス国民党（SVP）が党の戦略担当のブロッハー氏やブルンナー党首等主要な候補者が議席を獲得出来ず、全州議会46議席中2議席減らして5議席に留まった事だ。今回の選挙結果を元に、12月14日の連邦評議員選挙に向けた戦いは一段と激しさを増す気配だ。
【 参照 】
*1) スイス連邦議会：
http://www.parlament.ch/d/Seiten/default.aspx
*2) 2011年連邦議会選挙: http://www.parlamentswahlen-2011.ch/
*3) 国民民主党：
http://www.bdp.info/
*4) グリーン・リヴェラル (glp):
http://www.grunliberale.ch/index.htm
*5) 自由民主党：
http://www.fdp.ch/aus-liebe-zur-schweiz.html
*6) スイス国民党：
http://www.svp.ch/
*7) キリスト教民主党：
http://www.cvp.ch/
*8) スイス緑の党：
http://www.gruene.ch/
*9) 社会民主党: http://www.sp-ps.ch/
*10) パスカーレ・ブルーダラー：
http://wahlen.sp-ps.ch/kandidierende/kandidetails/pascale-bruderer/
http://www.parlament.ch/d/suche/seiten/biografie.aspx?biografie_id=823
*11) カリン・ケラー＝スッター：
http://www.karin-keller-sutter.ch/
【 編集後記
】
予想外の保守の地滑り現象が始まったかに見えるスイスの政局ではあるが、革新政党にしても長年安定を享受してきた政党は、国民の厳しい評価を受ける事態になった。その間隙を縫うように中道の弱小政党が存在感を増し、議会のキャスティング・ヴォートを握る勢いで連邦政府の中枢の一角を押さえている。次号は連邦評議員選挙の結果と共に新しいスイス政界の事情を概観しようと思う。
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Results of the
parliament elections 2011 by overview
Akiko Huerlimann
The election
results *1) of the members of assembly *2) were just preliminarily
reported, and the press hold up their head. BDP *3) which was founded in November
2008 and the Green Liberal Party of Switzerland *4) that sent their
representatives to the National parliament first in 2007; those newcomer
took the votes away from the establishment parties and drastically won
their seats. It's reported that the matter of nuclear power station
affected the win-or-lose situation; I understand it as public sentiment.
As of October 24,
23h 35min, 200 new parliament seats of the National council were fixed as
follows (from left to right): Green party: less 5 seats with a total of
15 seats, SP: plus two seats with a total of 45 seats, Green-Liberal:
adding 9 seats with a new total of 12 seats, CVP: less 3 seats with a
total of 28 seats, FDP *5): less 5 seats with a total of 30 seats, BDP:
winning 9 seats with a total of 9 seats, SVP: *6) less 8 seats with a
total 54 seats, and others: adding one seats with a new total of 7 seats.
The voting ratio was 49.8% and pretty fair.
The SVP lost its
vigor, especially Mr. Blocher could not get the
best voting result among SVP, therefore, his influence weakened, it was
pointed out. The FDP won a historical low number of votes obtaining only
14.7%. Especially Mr. Fulvio Pelli, the head of the party was many times in danger
about his re-election, and at the midnight, barely his re-election was
confirmed. This process also drew attention. The CVP *7) also grew at a
sluggish pace; the Green Party of Switzerland also could not get enough
support to win a representative for the Council of States. The SP *9)
increased two seats; however, the voting ratio decreased by 1.9%,
therefore the result does not allow them to be optimistic! The party
power balance slightly leaned to the right, but in general, left wing
parties could maintain still their power more than right wing parties.
On the other hand,
regarding to the results of the highly competitive election for the
"Council of State" only 27 members out of 46 members were
elected on October 24. There were 13 Cantons with 19 members where the
winners of the election were not decided yet; the election has to decide
the winners in a second round of votes. From November 6 starting at the
Canton Valais up to December 4, with the Canton of Solothurn last, one
election after the other is going to taken
place in each canton. One of the star winners at the first election was
Mrs. Pascale Bruderer
from the SP of the Canton Aargau. She served as chairwoman of the
National Council without apparent difficulties; she is in the thirties
and has brains and beauty, is a sportswoman, and fought the election during
her pregnancy. Another one is Mrs. Karin Keller-Sutter *11) who has also
both brains and beauty. She is considered as the ideal successor of Mr. Fulvio Pelli as head of the
party FDP.
A candidate of the
National Council and the Council of States can stand both of two-timing,
that's why to confirm the winners of the National Parliament members can
be also be a marathon race. Two-timing candidates are a disadvantage for
the party regarding to the election strategy; therefore, those must be
exceptional political figures. However, the second election for Council
of State in Bern on November 20 brought a surprising result. A member of
the Council of States, Mr. Adrian Amstutz who
was a dominant candidate of SVP, but he unexpectedly lost his seat and
still stays as member of the National Council. According to online
questionnaire of Tages-Anzeiger, 76% of the
people had an extreme impression about SVP political campaign. A person
who unexpectedly won a precious seat was (ex) Mayor of Biel and SP
National Council member, Mr. Hans Stoeckli. He
won back the seat from SVP to SP again. Another winner was Mr. Werner Luginbuehl of BDP and he keep up the seat.
Whenever
opportunity offers, either Federal Councilor Eveline
Widmer-Schlumpf will be re-elected or not; that's
because of the fate of the election four years ago when she was elected
by the coalition of middle parties and radical parties in order to stop
the conservative Mr. Blocher's re-election. The
coalition can again work together this time, many dicker were talked
about. The election result of BDP, the mother party of Federal Councilor Widmer-Schlumpf, made significant headway on. The
party was founded by spin-off party members of ex-SVP because of her; its
rapid progress could be also due to highly evaluated political ability of
Federal Councilor Widmer-Schlumpf, I think. She
is hard working and a quiet dedicated type of practical mind; for the
first justice and the present finance ministry, she's steadily resolved a
mountain of issues and negotiated hardheaded with other countries. Her
ability received recognition from the people. She is not affected by
frequently exposed curious eye-sight and sensational press reports, and
did her job with a porker face, that's I have to respect her. The
election results of parties that had her as candidate was good, Mr. Levrat party president of SP had asked BDP party
president Mr. Grunder to cooperate in order to
support her re-election. However, Mr. Grunder
refused it. Originally, as he is a conservative politician, so that to
co-operate with left wing is not considerable for him.
And make-or-break
stage in the campaign on November 27, the second election round for seven
Council of State members took place. Members of Council of States, such as
in Zurich, Luzern, Uri, Schwyz, St. Gallen, and
Aargau could not reached popular vote by the first election, and the
second election result was come out. Except one seat of Canton Solothurn
that is planned to make election on December 4, new member of Council of
State is decided. The mostly attracted attention was conservative SVP
members, such as Mr. Blocher (party chief
strategist), Mr. Brunner (party president), and others major candidates
could not get additional seats and remained 5 seats (less (two seats) out
of forty-six of the Council of States. Based on that election result, the
election campaign towards the Federal Council election on December 14 is
going to heat up.
【 Reference 】
*1) the Federal
Assembly - The Swiss Parliament:
http://www.parlament.ch/d/Seiten/default.aspx
*2) Parliament
Election 2011: http://www.parlamentswahlen-2011.ch/
*3) BDP: http://www.bdp.info/
*4) Green Liberal
Party of Switzerland (glp):
http://www.grunliberale.ch/index.htm
*5) FDP: http://www.fdp.ch/aus-liebe-zur-schweiz.html
*6) SVP: http://www.svp.ch/
*7) CVP: http://www.cvp.ch/
*8) Green Party of
Switzerland: http://www.gruene.ch/
*9) SP: http://www.sp-ps.ch/
*10) http://wahlen.sp-ps.ch/kandidierende/kandidetails/pascale-bruderer/
http://www.parlament.ch/d/suche/seiten/biografie.aspx?biografie_id=823
*11) http://www.karin-keller-sutter.ch/
【 Editor's comment 】
The Swiss
political landscape looks like as if the conservative landslide
phenomenon has started more than expected. Radical parties that enjoyed
stable support from the constituency for years were also given now a
severe judgment from the people. Like through the interval between them,
the middle and small parties now show their existence, and nearly hold
the casting vote in the parliament where they keep a position of the
central government. For the next version, I'm thinking to overview the
results of the Federal Councilor's Election as well as the new Swiss
political situation.
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